7th European Windstorm Workshop

From weather to climate scales

10 October – 12 October 2018
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany

Conference board

  • Joaquim Pinto, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
  • Florian Pantillon, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
  • Patrick Ludwig, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
  • Madeleine-Sophie Derouche, Group Risk Management, AXA, Paris

Announcement

A major source of natural hazards, mid-latitude storms have devastating socio-economic impacts. Yet the processes involved in their intensification and generation of disastrous impacts such as flooding are not fully understood. Initiated in 2011, the European storm workshops aims at bringing together dynamical meteorologists, climatologists, statisticians, stakeholders and risk model developers from insurance and engineering consultant companies. Thereby, these interdisciplinary workshops try to bridge state-of-the-art breakthroughs in sciences to the practical implementation in risk modeling.

The 7th Workshop on European Storms will take place at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, at “Campus South” (University) from October 10th to 12th 2018. The workshop will be free to attend but will be limited to 100 participants.

Format and sessions

The conference will cover the following topics:

  • Dynamics of European windstorms
  • Predictability and variability from weather to climate timescales 3.
  • Windstorm risk studies and insurance collaborations

We plan to have about 20 invited speakers covering the key themes listed above. In addition, there will be ample time for contributed talks and poster sessions. Moreover, to stimulate discussion there will be time for breakout group work.

Conference Homepage

7th European Windstorm Workshop

Photo

group of participants

Programme

Wednesday 10 October 2018
13:30 Welcome and Introduction Joaquim Pinto, Madeleine-Sophie Deroche, Patrick Ludwig, Florian Pantillon
Session 1 – Dynamics of European windstorms (Chair: Patrick Ludwig)
     
14:10 Linking extreme precipitation, atmospheric rivers and extratropical cyclone airflows (PDF) Helen Dacre, Oscar Alvarado-Martinez, Cheikh Mbengue
14:40 The role of latent heating for extratropical cyclone dynamics in a warmer climate (PDF) Dominik Büeler, Stephan Pfahl
15:00 Dynamic of a Sting Jet case study over continental Europe (PDF) Lea Eisenstein, Florian Pantillon, Peter Knippertz, Joaquim Pinto
15:20 COFFEE BREAK
16:00 The Impact of Stratospheric Waves on the Deepening of North Atlantic Winter Cyclones Gregor Pante, Seraphine Hauser, Peter Knippertz
16:20 The intensity and motion of hybrid cyclones in the Australian region in a composite potential vorticity framework (PDF) Julian Quinting, Jennifer Catto, Michael Reeder
16:40 Consistent catalogues of extreme and high-impact winter storms in Portugal (PDF) Margarida L. R. Liberato
17:00 ICEBREAKER
 
Thursday 11 October 2018
Session 2 – Predictability and variability from weather to climate timescales (Chair: Joaquim Pinto)
 
9:00 KEYNOTE – Clouds, radiation, weather and climate (PDF) Aiko Voigt
9:30 Forecasting wind gusts in winter storms using a calibrated convectionpermitting ensemble (PDF) Florian Pantillon, Sebastian Lerch, Peter Knippertz, Ulrich Corsmeier
9:50 Observed cloud anomalies associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and their radiative feedback (PDF) Georgios Papavasileiou, Aiko Voigt, Peter Knippertz
10:10 Large scale drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe (PDF) Michael A. Walz, Markus G. Donat, Gregor C. Leckebusch
10:30 COFFEE BREAK
11:10 A critical assessment of the long term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis (PDF) Len Shaffrey, Hannah Bloomfield, Kevin Hodges, Pier Luigi Vidale
11:30 Variability of intensification mechanisms of extra-tropical cyclones analysing ERA20C reanalysis (PDF) Jens Grieger, Joaquim G. Pinto, Andreas H. Fink, Uwe Ulbrich
11:50 Long-term variability regional changes in precipitation since 850 and the role of the water vapor transport (PDF) Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, Ricardo M. Trigo, Christoph C. Raible, Martina Messmer, Joaquim G. Pinto
12:10 LUNCH
13:30 Poster session (Chair: Florian Pantillon)

for PDFs see "Posters" at the bottom of the page


1.1 Anatomy of a windstorm in the light of a Doppler lidar
1.2 A global climatology of explosive cyclones using a multi tracking approach
2.1 Radiative impact of clouds on the global warming responses of the northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm tracks and eddy-driven jet streams
2.2 Seven decades of North Atlantic storm climate statistics based on a spectrally nudged ECHAM6 simulation
2.3 North Atlantic winter storm changes under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C
2.4 Variability of compound extreme events in the Euro-Atlantic region and its association to extratropical storms
2.5 Northeast Atlantic Storminess and its Uncertainty in the late 19th and 20th Century
2.6 Extremes in the Lorenz energy cycle
3.1 Operational Wind Storm Service for the Insurance Sector
3.2 SWiFT: an operational prediction tool of the potential losses associated to European winter windstorms
3.3 Learnings from our European windstorm catastrophe model
 
Session 3 – Windstorm risk and insurance collaborations (Chair: Madeleine-Sophie Deroche)
     
15:00 KEYNOTE – Operational Wind Storm Service for the Insurance Sector (PDF) Alan Whitelaw
15:30 Inter-comparison of Arctic storms in Reanalysis Datasets (PDF) Alexander Vessey, Kevin Hodges, Len Shaffrey, Jonathan Day, Tom Philp
15:50 How important is serial clustering in seasonal losses from severe windstorms in Europe? (PDF) Matthew Priestley, Helen Dacre, Len Shaffrey, Kevin Hodges, Joaquim Pinto
16:10 COFFEE BREAK
16:50 Spatial independence of wind storm gust extremes (PDF) David Stephenson
17:10 Windstorm Losses in a Changing Climate (PDF) Bernhard Reinhardt, Eric Robinson, Shane Latchmann
17:30 Metaxa: Met Office and AXA collaborate on estimations of loss based on high resolution storm footprints (PDF) Robin Locatelli, Paul Maisey, Bernd Dieter Becker, Christelle Castet
19:00 WORKSHOP DINNER AT BADISCH BRAUHAUS
 
Friday 12 October 2018
9:30

Breakout discussions

Relative importance of the different jets associated with windstorms for total property damage

Introduction: Daniel Ward


What advances can we expect to make in the next 5-10 years in terms of understanding the impact of climate change on European Windstorms?

Introduction: Len Shaffrey


Validation and calibration methods of extreme storms given the limited sample size of the historic record

Introduction: Niklaus Merz
10:30 COFFEE BREAK
11:00 Breakout reports
11:30 Open discussion and closing
 
Posters
  1. Nicole Albern – Cloud-Radiative Impact on the Global Warming Responses of the Mid-latitude Storm Tracks and Eddy-driven Jet Streams
  2. Richard Blender – Extremes in the Lorenz Energy Cycle
  3. Madeleine-Sophie Déroche – SWiFT: A GLOBAL ALERT SYSTEM FOR WINDSTORM DETECTION, FORECASTING AND MONITORING
  4. Frauke Feser – North Atlantic winter storm changes under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C
  5. Riccardo Hénin– Variability of compound extreme events in the Euro-Atlantic region and its association to extratropical storms
  6. Oliver Krueger – Northeast Atlantic Storminess and its Uncertainty in the late 19th and 20th Century
  7. Marseille – Operational Wind Storm Service for the Insurance Sector
  8. Niklaus Merz – Learnings from our CatFocus® European windstorm catastrophe model
  9. Florian Pantillon – Anatomy of a windstorm in the light of a Doppler lidar
  10. Marco Reale – A global climatology of explosive cyclones using a multi tracking approach
  11. Katja Woth – Seven decades of North Atlantic storm climate statistics based on a spectrally nudged ECHAM6 simulation