Conference board
- Gregor C. Leckebusch, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UK
- Michael Angus, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UK
- Len Shaffrey, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
- Giovanni Leoncini, ZurichRe, Switzerland
- Joaquim Pinto, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
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Announcement
A major source of natural hazards, mid-latitude storms have devastating socio-economic impacts. Yet the processes involved in their intensification and generation of disastrous impacts such as flooding are not fully understood. Initiated in 2011, the European storm workshops aims at bringing together dynamical meteorologists, climatologists, statisticians, stakeholders and risk model developers from insurance and engineering consultant companies. Thereby, these interdisciplinary workshops try to bridge state-of-the-art breakthroughs in sciences to the practical implementation in risk modeling.
In October 2019, the University of Birmingham hosted the 8th European Windstorm Workshop at the world class Edgbaston Park Hotel and Conference centre here on Campus.
Format and sessions
The conference will cover the following topics:
- Climate change, variability and potential impacts on Europe’s resiliency to windstorms
- Industry applications and storm quantification: alternative views on risk
- Flooding and wind extremes from a dynamical perspective
- Predicting windstorms: weather forecasting and seasonal to decadal prediction
Conference Homepage
8th European Windstorm WorkshopPhoto
Programme
View all session and poster abstracts here (PDF)
Please note that some of the presentations are password-protected and these are only accessible to the workshop attendees.
| Monday 28th October | ||
| 13:00 - 14:00 | Welcome Lunch and registration | |
| 14:00 - 14:15 | Opening remarks | |
| Session 1 – Climate change, variability and potential impacts on Europe’s resiliency to windstorms (Chair: Gregor C. Leckebusch) | ||
| 14:15 - 14:35 | Synoptic activity during amplified mid-latitude planetary waves (PDF) | Invited Talk, Irina Rudeva |
| 14:35 - 14:55 | Reconstructions of Northeast Atlantic and German Bight storm activity from the late 19th century onwards (PDF) | Oliver Krueger |
| 14:55 - 15:15 | The impact of the Atlantic Hurricane season on the subsequent European Windstorm Season (PDF) | Michael Angus |
| 15:15 - 15:35 | Afternoon refreshment break | |
| 15:35 - 15:55 | The role of upper vs. lower tropospheric baroclinicity on severe storms over Central Europe and Iceland: observational results and climate scenarios (PDF) | Lisa Degenhardt |
| 15:55 - 16:15 | Assessing the added value of convection permitting climate simulations for the representation of sting-jets and associated extreme wind speeds in European wind storms | Colin Manning |
| 16:15 - 17:00 | Poster Highlights, short (2-3 minute) talks by each poster presenter (Chair: Michael Angus) | |
| 17:00 - 18:00 | Icebreaker at venue with refreshments | |
| Tuesday 29th October | ||
| Session 2 – Industry applications and storm quantification: alternative views on risk (Chair: Christoph Raible) | ||
| 9:00 - 9:20 | Historical extreme storms as a tool for understanding risk | Invited Talk, Len Shaffrey |
| 9:20 - 9:40 | Using PRIMAVERA high-resolution global climate models to make a European windstorm event set (PDF) | Julia Lockwood |
| 9:40 - 10:00 | Sensitivities of European Extratropical Cyclone Insured Losses to the North Atlantic Oscillation (PDF) | Chris Webber |
| 10:00 - 10:20 | Insurance industry losses from 6000 years of windstorms in a high resolution ensemble climate model | Richard Dixon |
| 10:20-10:40 | Morning refreshment break | |
| Session 3 – Industry applications and storm quantification: climate services perspective (Chair: Geovanni Leoncini) | ||
| 10:40 - 11:00 | What the Copernicus Climate Change Service Evaluation and Quality Control Framework Can Do for the Insurance Community | Invited Talk, Bernd Eggen |
| 11:00 - 11:20 | Copernicus Climate Change Service Operational Windstorm Service - Update and Way Forward (PDF) | Alan Whitelaw |
| 11:20 - 11:40 | Generation of stochastic winter wind storm events in Europe based on the last generation of dynamical and statistical methods. An AXA joint research initiative. (PDF) | Bernd D. Becker |
| 11:40 - 12:00 | A comparison of approaches for representing windstorm footprints using observations and meteorological models, and the impact on insurance loss estimation: A joint research initiative, Met Office and AXA (PDF) | Laura Dawkins |
| 12:00 - 13:00 | Lunch in the restaurant | |
| 13:00 - 14:30 |
Poster session (Chair: Michael Angus) View all session and poster abstracts here (PDF) Laura Batchelor: Co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and wind associated with extratropical cyclones over Europe Richard Dixon: European Windstorm Research Priorities for the Insurance Industry: 2019 Revisit Emanuele Silvio Gentile: The impact of atmosphere, ocean and waves coupling on extreme surface wind forecast Hilde Haakenstad: NORA3 - a non-hydrostatic regional hindcast for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea John Hillier: Observations Relating Extreme Multi-Basin River Flows to Very Severe Gales Matthew Priestley: The Northern Hemisphere storm track and bomb cyclone representation in CMIP6 Len Shaffrey: The WINDSURFER project: Past, current and future European wind and wave risk Linda Van Garderen: A Spectrally Nudged Global Storyline: Attributing the Effect of Climate Change in Historical Extreme Events. Alexander Vessey: Arctic Storm Characteristics between Storm Tracking Algorithms and their Structure Michael Walz: How much flavour can climate model data add to benchmarking a 200-year return period European winter storm event? Kirien Whan: Probabilistic wind speed forecasting using parametric and non-parametric statistical post-processing methods Xiaoyu Xiong: Data fusion with Gaussian processes for estimation of environmental hazard events |
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| Session 4 – Flooding and wind extremes from a dynamical perspective (Chair: Suzanne Grey) | ||
| 14:30 - 14:50 | The role of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in compound precipitation, wind, and wave extremes | Invited Talk, Jennifer Catto |
| 14:50 - 15:10 | Dynamics of sting-jet storm "Egon" over continental Europe: impact of surface properties and model resolution (PDF) | Florian Pantillon |
| 15:10 - 15:30 | Wind and precipitation extremes on the Iberian Peninsula and associated cyclones | Margardia Liberato |
| 15:30 - 15:50 | Afternoon refreshments break | |
| 15:50 - 16:10 | North Atlantic winter storm activity in modern reanalyses and pressure-based observations | Frauke Feser |
| 16:10 - 16:30 | Feature-based classification of European windstorms (PDF) | Christian Passow |
| 16:30 - 16:50 | Understanding the risk from correlated windstorms and floods in the UK (PDF) | Oliver Halliday |
| 19:00 | Conference Dinner, Cuore at the Green Heart on University of Birmingham campus | |
| Wednesday 30th October | ||
| Session 5 – Predicting windstorms: weather forecasting and seasonal to decadal prediction (Chair: Frauke Feser) | ||
| 8:30 - 8:50 | A prototype real-time sting jet precursor tool for forecasters | Invited Talk, Oscar Martinez-Alvardo |
| 8:50 - 9:10 | The impact of 1-way and 2-way nesting on the simulation of European windstorms (PDF) | Hilke Lentink |
| 9:10 - 9:30 | Seasonal Forecasting of European Windstorms and robust estimation of loss potentials | Gregor C. Leckebusch |
| 9:30 - 9:50 | Gust formation during a windstorm in the light of Doppler lidar observations and large-eddy simulations (PDF) | Hilke Lentink |
| 9:50 - 10:10 | Morning refreshment break | |
| 10:10 - 11:30 |
Breakout discussions Session 1: "Building sustained industry-academic partnerships through novel techniques in windstorm impact assessment" Convened by Richard Dixon Session 2: “How to better communicate the community's European Windstorm research and impact to a wider audience"? Convened by Gregor C. Leckebusch, Len Shaffrey and Michael Angus Session 3: Open for conference discussion |
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| 11:30 - 12:00 | Breakout session wrap up and general discussion on format for next year | |
| 12:00 | Close | |