6th European Windstorm Workshop

Impacts and Predictability

21 June – 23 June 2017
University of Reading, UK

Conference board

  • Prof. Len Shaffrey, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  • Prof. David Stephenson, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Exeter, UK
  • Prof. Christoph C. Raible, Climate and Environmental Physics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
  • Giovanni Leoncini, AspenRe, Switzerland

Announcement

The aim of the workshop is to bring together scientists from dynamical meteorology and climatology as well as stakeholders from the insurance and engineering industries to share recent research ideas. The workshop is a continuation of a series of European storm workshops which started in 2011.

Topics

  1. Understanding the dynamics of European Windstorms
  2. Predicting European Windstorms from a few hours to a season ahead
  3. How have European Windstorm varied in the past? And how might they change in the future?
  4. Assessing and modelling the impacts, damage and losses from European Windstorms
  5. Improving the links between academia, operational centres and the insurance industry

Programme

21. June 2017
     
1.30 Welcome and Introduction Len Shaffrey
1.50 Introduction: Needs of the insurance industry Richard Dixon
     
Session 1 – Windstorms: Variability and Climate Change
     
2.10 The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms David Stephenson
2.30 Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment Ted Shepherd
2.50 Discussion  
3.10 Coffee  
3.40 Extratropical Cyclone statistics during the last millennium Christoph Raible
4.00 Impact of Climate Change on the Climatology of Vb Cyclones Martina Messmer
4.20 Sting jet storms in a warmer climate Suzanne Gray
4.40 Discussion  
5.00 - 6.30 Posters and ice-breaker  
 
22. June 2017
     
Session 2 – Assessing and Modelling Windstorm Risk
     
9.00 Potential wind loss events over the Iberian Peninsula: Ranking, multi-decadal variability and selected case studies Alexandre Ramos
9.20 Return period estimates of historical European winterstorm clusters: a multi-model perspective Angelika Werner
9.40 A century-long European windstorm catalogue as a tool for model benchmarking in reinsurance G. Jean-Baptiste
10.00 Assessment of windstorm risk for the insurance industry as part of the PRIMAVERA project Julia Lockwood
10.20 Discussion  
10.30 Coffee  
11.00 Breakout groups
  1. How have windstorms varied in the past? How might they change in the future?
  2. Integrating windstorm science in the private sector
  
12.00 Reports from groups and discussion  
12.30 Lunch  
1.45 The North Sea 1200 Year Wave Study (NS1200): A Climate Modelling Approach to Setting Offshore Design Criteria Oliver Jones
2.05 European Windstorm Catastrophe Model Evaluation through the Application of Scientific Research Samuel Phibbs
2.25 Overview of the C3S Windstorm Climate Service (WISC) Alan Whitelaw
 
Session 3 – Windstorm Clustering
     
2.45 The dynamics of cyclone clustering in re-analysis and a high-resolution climate model Joaquim Pinto
3.05 Discussion  
3.20 Coffee  
3.50 Modelling serial clustering of European winter windstorms Michael Walz
4.10 Poisson process modelling of European windstorm occurrence Ben Youngman
 
22. June 2017
     
Session 4 – Dynamics and Predictability
     
4.30 The roles of static stability and tropical-extratropical interactions in North Atlantic and European sector summertime storminess Cheikh Mbengue
4.50 Discussion  
5.00 Close  
 
23. June 2017
     
9.00 Dynamical processes within extreme winter European ETCs Adrian Champion
9.20 Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts Florian Pantillon
9.40 Vorticity and Geopotential Height extremes and the dependency on the large scale circulation Richard Blender
10.00 The Role of Mesoscale Instabilities in the Sting-Jet dynamics of Windstorm Tini A. Volonté
10.20 Discussion  
10.30 Coffee  
11.00 Breakout groups
  1. Windstorm clustering
  2. Improving communication between academia, operational centres and industry
  3. Understanding and predicting windstorms
  
12.00 Reports from groups and wrap up  
12.30 Lunch and Close  
 
Posters
  1. Frauke Feser – Storm – Simulations using Global Spectral Nudging
  2. Benjamin Schaaf – Added value of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for storms over the German Bight and Northern Germany
  3. Ronald Li – Atmospheric drivers of European drought events
  4. Ben Harvey – The representation of an observed cold front in high-resolution NWP simulations
  5. Ines Höschel – Decadal predictability of winter windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe (presenter Jens Grieger)
  6. Hilde Haakenstad – The New Year's Day Storm 1992 in the new NORA10EI hindcast
  7. Alan Whitelaw – The Copernicus Windstorm Information Service